Consumers can expect to pay high prices at the grocery store for turkey this upcoming holiday season thanks to the impacts of avian influenza and inflation.

The retail price for fresh boneless, skinless turkey breast reached a record high of $6.70 per pound in September 2021 when prices were $3.16 per pound. The previous record high price was $5.88 per pound in November 2015, during the 2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak. Wholesale is $1.79/lb for whole turkeys.

Inflation is contributing to the price increases. All retail food prices were 11.4% higher in August compared to the same time last year.

Despite the higher prices, demand has remained strong and is even forecast to increase.

Although there will be a tighter supply of turkeys this year, there should be enough available for the Thanksgiving demand.

“HPAI outbreaks in the spring and an uptick in cases in the fall are taking a toll, but farmers remain dedicated to ensuring America’s food supply remains strong.”

It is important to understand that farmers aren’t profiting from record high retail prices. High supply costs from feed, fuel, fertilizer and labor make raising turkeys even more expensive.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s most recent Farm Sector Income Forecast predicts record high total production costs, increasing 17.8% from 2021 to $437.4 billion in 2022.

While egg prices have come down from record highs in July, the average price for a dozen grade A eggs is $2.34, 27% higher than the same time in 2021, and 44% above the five-year average of $1.29.

USDA estimates +47 million commercial poultry birds have been last to highly pathogenic bird influenza in 42 states including Alaska. It takes 3.5-5.5 months to replace a flock lost to influenza. But no real shortage of whole birds for the holidays.

(courtesy Scott Anderson, Brown County Extension Agent)